Chronology
Every term on the list over 32 years, counted however you ask for it. The choice of unit is itself an argument: the same numbers look like a steep rise or like a flat line depending on what they are divided by, and both readings are offered here on purpose.
The word list over time
When was each term said, and does the answer hold up once you allow for how much the Council spoke?
Drawing…
View the plotted values as a table
| Period | genocide |
|---|---|
| 1992 | 2.35% |
| 1993 | 3.87% |
| 1994 | 6.46% |
| 1995 | 4.95% |
| 1996 | 3.59% |
| 1997 | 1.31% |
| 1998 | 3.54% |
| 1999 | 4.77% |
| 2000 | 3.35% |
| 2001 | 2.98% |
| 2002 | 2.68% |
| 2003 | 2.08% |
| 2004 | 3.62% |
| 2005 | 4.42% |
| 2006 | 3.57% |
| 2007 | 4.10% |
| 2008 | 2.57% |
| 2009 | 2.85% |
| 2010 | 2.44% |
| 2011 | 1.81% |
| 2012 | 2.65% |
| 2013 | 4.12% |
| 2014 | 5.35% |
| 2015 | 4.43% |
| 2016 | 3.04% |
| 2017 | 2.44% |
| 2018 | 2.32% |
| 2019 | 1.98% |
| 2020 | 2.88% |
| 2021 | 2.30% |
| 2022 | 2.79% |
| 2023 | 2.62% |
Terms
Grouped by register. A set counts several terms together; a register counts every term in one family of vocabulary at once.
Does the vocabulary have a calendar?
Month by month, are there times of year when the Council reaches for this vocabulary more than others?
View the grid as a table
A dash marks a month with no published rate. Every number opens that month's lines in the concordance, that month alone rather than the year around it. Months with no rate link too: the minimum applies to the rate, and the lines beneath it are the record itself rather than an estimate drawn from it.
Shading always carries a rate, never a count. Twice as dark is not twice the rate — read the key. A hatched square has no rate; it is not a zero.
The same twelve months, pooled
Across thirty-two years, which months of the year carry the vocabulary — and what was on the agenda in them?
| Month | Speeches | Using the term | Rate | Without 1994/1995 | Largest agenda item behind them |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 8,079 | 207 | 2.56% | 2.62% | Protection Of Civilians 43 · 20.77% |
| February | 8,182 | 217 | 2.65% | 2.47% | Maintenance Of International Peace And Security 44 · 20.28% |
| March | 8,971 | 171 | 1.91% | 1.91% | Middle East 32 · 18.71% |
| April | 9,508 | 276 | 2.90% | 2.73% | Bosnia And Herzegovina 45 · 16.30% |
| May | 8,831 | 311 | 3.52% | 3.59% | Protection Of Civilians 76 · 24.44% |
| June | 9,887 | 591 | 5.98% | 5.87% | International Tribunals 213 · 36.04% |
| July | 8,747 | 203 | 2.32% | 2.26% | Bosnia And Herzegovina 34 · 16.75% |
| August | 6,523 | 133 | 2.04% | 1.86% | Maintenance Of International Peace And Security 26 · 19.55% |
| September | 7,484 | 128 | 1.71% | 1.57% | Africa 14 · 10.94% |
| October | 11,058 | 251 | 2.27% | 2.27% | Women And Peace And Security 54 · 21.51% |
| November | 9,783 | 317 | 3.24% | 3.03% | Bosnia And Herzegovina 74 · 23.34% |
| December | 9,249 | 468 | 5.06% | 5.00% | International Tribunals 177 · 37.82% |
These rows are measured against a different total from any square in the grid above, so the two figures do not share a scale.
Testing for a change in the rate
Is the genocide series better described by one steady rate, or by two?
| Unit | Partition | Earlier | Later | Ratio | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of speeches | 2017 | 3.47% | 2.48% | 0.71× | 0.0005 |
| Per 100k words | 2016 | 10.89 | 7.06 | 0.65× | 0.0005 |
View the second, exploratory change-point method
This method shuffles the same yearly values into a new order to see how unusual the real ordering is, which detects a step up or down but not a gradual trend: a series that rises smoothly will return a break at its midpoint regardless. Read these candidates against the plotted series rather than in place of it.
| Unit | Candidate year | Diagnostic p |
|---|---|---|
| Speeches | 2013 | 0.0010 |
| Occurrences | 2014 | 0.0115 |
Who says it, and in what debate
Is the rise or fall concentrated in one kind of speaker, or one part of the agenda?
Choose a split above to break the series apart.
Reference dates
35 dates, selected by hand, used to mark the chart above. Each links to the official record used to verify its date and description. They are there for context; a date falling near a change in the chart is not evidence that it produced the change.
| Date | Event | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 May 1992 | Sanctions on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia— First Council enforcement action of the Bosnian war | council | S/RES/757 |
| 25 May 1993 | International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia established— First international criminal tribunal since Nuremberg | legal | S/RES/827 |
| 6 April 1994 | Rwandan genocide begins— Habyarimana's aircraft shot down over Kigali | atrocity | UN Rwanda outreach |
| 21 April 1994 | UNAMIR cut to 270 troops— The Council's withdrawal at the height of the killing | council | S/RES/912 |
| 22 June 1994 | Operation Turquoise authorised— French-led intervention under Chapter VII | council | S/RES/929 |
| 4 July 1994 | RPF takes Kigali— End of the hundred days | atrocity | UN Rwanda outreach |
| 8 November 1994 | International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda established— Rwanda voted against the resolution creating it | legal | S/RES/955 |
| 11 July 1995 | Fall of Srebrenica— Later ruled genocide by the ICTY and the ICJ | atrocity | UN Srebrenica outreach |
| 14 December 1995 | Dayton Agreement signed in Paris | conflict | S/1996/1017 |
| 17 July 1998 | Rome Statute adopted— Genocide as the first of the four core crimes | legal | A/CONF.183/9 |
| 24 March 1999 | NATO air campaign over Kosovo begins— Intervention without Council authorisation | conflict | SC/6657 |
| 15 December 1999 | Independent inquiry into UN action in Rwanda— The Carlsson report | institutional | S/1999/1257 |
| 1 July 2002 | Rome Statute enters into force | legal | ICC-ASP/14/30 |
| 7 April 2004 | Action Plan to Prevent Genocide— Announced on the tenth anniversary of Rwanda | institutional | SG/SM/9245 |
| 30 July 2004 | Darfur: arms embargo and demands on the Janjaweed | council | S/RES/1556 |
| 9 September 2004 | US Secretary of State names Darfur a genocide— A state qualification the Council did not adopt | contested | US State Department |
| 31 March 2005 | Darfur referred to the International Criminal Court— First Council referral to the ICC | legal | S/RES/1593 |
| 16 September 2005 | World Summit Outcome adopts the responsibility to protect— Paragraphs 138-139 | institutional | A/RES/60/1 |
| 28 April 2006 | Responsibility to protect reaffirmed by the Council— Protection of civilians in armed conflict | council | S/RES/1674 |
| 8 August 2008 | Russia-Georgia war— Competing genocide claims over South Ossetia | contested | SC/9417 |
| 12 July 2010 | ICC issues a genocide warrant for al-Bashir— Genocide added to the 2009 warrant | legal | ICC-02/05-01/09 |
| 17 March 2011 | Libya: all necessary measures— The high-water mark of R2P | council | S/RES/1973 |
| 4 October 2011 | First Russian and Chinese veto on Syria | council | SC/10403 |
| 21 August 2013 | Ghouta chemical attack | atrocity | A/67/997-S/2013/553 |
| 15 March 2014 | Crimea draft resolution vetoed | council | S/2014/189 |
| 3 August 2014 | Sinjar: ISIL attacks the Yazidis | atrocity | A/HRC/32/CRP.2 |
| 15 August 2014 | Sanctions on ISIL and the Al-Nusrah Front | council | S/RES/2170 |
| 8 July 2015 | Srebrenica genocide resolution vetoed— Russia's veto on the twentieth anniversary | contested | SC/11961 |
| 25 August 2017 | Rakhine: the Rohingya exodus begins | atrocity | OHCHR mission report |
| 11 November 2019 | The Gambia v. Myanmar filed at the ICJ— First Genocide Convention case brought by a non-injured state | legal | ICJ 178 |
| 23 January 2020 | Provisional measures ordered in The Gambia v. Myanmar | legal | ICJ 178 |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine— Invasion justified in part by a genocide claim in Donbas | conflict | SG/SM/21158 |
| 16 March 2022 | Provisional measures ordered in Ukraine v. Russia— Brought under the Genocide Convention | legal | ICJ 182 |
| 7 October 2023 | Hamas attack on Israel | conflict | SG/SM/22021 |
| 29 December 2023 | South Africa v. Israel filed at the ICJ— Two days before the corpus ends | legal | ICJ 192 |